Monthly Market Insights - November 2019

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Every month, Cambrian shares the Monthly Economic Commentary provided by our partners at Credential Financial Inc.. If you're looking for advice or have questions about the Monthly Economic Commentary, advisors are here to answer your questions.

Bull markets continue.
March 9, 2009 will be instilled in history as the low point of the Great Recession of 2009 and the start of the longest Bull market run ever. At that point, the S&P TSX Composite was sitting at 7,567 as crude toppled from the US$140 per barrel peak to just over US$47 and the safe-haven, but non-yielding, asset, gold, was at US$918 per ounce. One of the main catalysts for the market turmoil was the bursting of the U.S sub-prime mortgage bubble. However, after co-ordinated accommodative monetary policies by global central banks, new government legislation, and better balance sheet management, the TSX and other global indices are reaching new all-time highs. In the U.S., the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials, and Nasdaq are all at historical highs, with no end in sight. Overshadowing these milestones however, are the consequences of ongoing trade tensions on slowing the growth of global economies. Having just turned off the stimulus tap after numerous years, hopefully the central banks have learned from the last decade that with renewed options at their disposal, they can continue growth moving forward and keep running the Bulls for another decade.

Jobs reality.
As the trade war raged on between the U.S. and China, it was inevitable that Canada would feel the effects of collateral damage given these two countries are its largest trading partners. Surprisingly, Canada’s economy has remained robust, defying expectations by holding its own and continuing to expand. But only until now, as the latest employment data showed an unexpected decline in October, as the jobless rate held at 5.5%, while comparatively, in the U.S., its labour market saw unemployment rates rise to 3.6% in October from 3.5% the previous month. The number of jobs lost was not excessive but still fell after two consecutive months of strong gains, coming below moderate forecasts, as the majority of the losses of a full-time nature brings to light that the economy may be finally slowing. This was on top of earlier economic metrics of falling inflation, weak retail sales, and muted GDP growth. After holding interest rates at its last meeting, the Bank of Canada with this new data, may have to cut interest rates, the path taken by other central banks, to keep the economy progressing forward.

Read the full November 2019 Market Insights. 

Read previous Market Insights:
October 2019 
September 2019 
August 2019

*The information contained in this report was obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, we cannot guarantee that it is accurate or complete. This report is provided as a general source of information and should not be considered personal investment advice or solicitation to buy or sell any mutual funds and other securities.